Who Is Ann Selzer? Pollster Single-Handedly Rattling Election Predictions After Iowa Poll Hints at Election Upset
Ann has done a noteworthy job of predicting results, which is why her last-minute prediction for the 2024 election has so many people shaken.
Published Nov. 4 2024, 1:52 p.m. ET
Election Day is here, and everyone is ready for a conclusion one way or the other. The stakes are high for everyone on both sides, and this has been referred to by many as one of the most consequential elections of our time. Former President Donald Trump hopes to show that, despite being a convicted felon, Americans hold to his vision of an America from yesteryear.
On the flip side, Vice President Kamala Harris hopes to show that abortion rights and immigration are issues Americans hold dear. Early votes are in, and results are starting to form. Yet in the almost-11th-hour, one Iowan pollster has rattled election predictions with a hint that Kamala may be winning votes in unexpected places, putting a Trump victory in peril. But who is Ann Selzer, the pollster who rattled the beehive?
Who is Ann Selzer?
J. Ann Selzer, who goes by Ann Selzer, is an American pollster who formed her polling business Selzer & Company in 1996. In the 2016 election, poll-watching site FiveThirtyEight declared Ann "the best pollster in politics." Her company has been given a rare A+ by the site for accuracy.
In every election, Ann has done a noteworthy job of predicting results based on her company's polling of voters, which is why her last-minute prediction for the 2024 election has so many people shaken.
There have been times in the past when Ann's predictions have been standalone, and she has been right. So when she says that there could be a major upset coming for Trump in a state he thought squarely in his pocket, people are paying attention.
Iowa poll rattles election prediction with hours to go.
Over the weekend, Ann released a poll analysis that rattled the world of politics. On Sunday, The Des Moines Register published a prediction by Ann. And not just any prediction, a bold one that suggested Kamala would come from behind to clinch a win in the election despite multiple predictions that Trump was going to win.
Iowa is traditionally considered a "deep red" state. This means that in elections, the state nearly always goes to Republican candidates. Ahead of this year's election, nothing was suggesting a different outcome. Yet Ann says that a surprising surge among women and older voters puts Kamala a jaw-dropping three points ahead in Iowa, potentially flipping a deep red state to blue. Back in September, she was polling four points behind.
Ann told The Register, "It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” It's a stunning result that could potentially spell disaster for Trump across the country. Kamala's campaign hasn't focused much energy on Iowa because it's usually such a red state, so this could suggest a Kamala victory in states where they have focused attention, such as battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and others.
Iowa poll prompts election predictions to shift
The poll is created from the results of 808 Iowan voters who either already have voted or definitely plan to. The error margin for Ann's poll is plus or minus 3.4 percent, which could put the results within the margin of error. However, even if it's as far off as it's possible for the results to be, it's a disturbing result for Trump's campaign to be grappling with ahead of the big day.